Geopolitical Information Service

Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

Toru Hashimoto: the new force in Japanese politics

Political paralysis in Japan since the 1990s has prevented any serious attempt to cut the growing mountain of debt and social problems that threaten to drag down the world’s third largest economy. Japanese voters have become disillusioned with the political class, but for some, there does appear to be one bright hope on the horizon – Osaka’s young mayor, Toru Hashimoto. He is proposing a new political system which involves radical decentralisation. read

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Why India avoids the criticism levelled at China over trade with Latin America

Developing nations are starting to turn the tables on the developed world, which for so long has conducted trade with them on its own terms. India’s trade with Latin America is a prime example of the growing trade and economic cooperation within the developing world. China, too, has increased its trade with Latin America, but its motives appear to have more in common with those of developed nations, by taking what it can of Latin America’s natural resources. read

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Dr James Jay Carafano

Star Wars or guerilla wars?

There is a sense of urgency among Western nations to consider how to develop their military resources and operations. They are looking at their defence budgets while evaluating the changing and differing nature of warfare globally. This report considers options facing governments and questions whether they should look to develop high-tech ‘Star Wars’ defence systems or develop armed forces equipped to conduct ‘guerilla wars’? read

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Ecuador: Oil-driven boom should reward Rafael Correa's re-election

Rafael Correa is expected to stand for - and win - Ecuador's presidential election early in 2013. But the challenges he faces include a soaring crime rate, anti-mining protests and his confrontational approach to politics. GIS guest author and Andes specialist, Dr Catherine Conaghan of Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario, Canada, examines the issues in this special report. read

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Professor Stefan Hedlund

Georgia edges towards NATO

Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and the European Union is a source of major concern for Russia, as is the United States’ increasing economic and political influence in the country. This report, the second in a three-part series looking at Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, considers why these nation states of the South Caucasus make up a region of great strategic significance. read

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Professor Dr Jaime Pinto

Nigeria, divided by race, religion and region, faces threats of corruption and terror

Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan is seeking ways to unite his divided country. He wants to use the country’s vast oil wealth to improve education, welfare and infrastructure for the population but massive corruption and an increased terror threat from the radical Muslim group Boko Haram threatens further division. read

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Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

Japan's welfare failure leads to lonely deaths for the poor

Japanese society is facing a wave of separation, uprooting and anonymity. Traditional community bonds are being broken as more and more people, facing economic uncertainty, are forced to live on their own in anonymous apartment buildings. They are separated from their families, have low-paid jobs and work long hours. Many face a lonely death. read

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Barun S. Mitra

How India triggered a seismic revolution in outsourcing

It took one man to see the potential for India in shifting back-office functions from high wage to low wage economies. That man was Raman Roy, widely seen as the father of outsourcing in India. But while the industry has taken off in a way few could have predicted, there are challenges ahead for India, as competition increases, and wages in India itself are being pushed up. read

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Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

The Olympus scandal: Japan's new team, but has anything really changed?

Japanese shareholders in the giant medical equipment and camera company Olympus are hoping to have put last year’s scandal behind them. In the traditional Japanese way, they have put their trust in the new team at the top, without asking too many questions about how fresh the new faces are, and just how much is likely to change. The man who blew the whistle on the scandal, the company’s former chairman, Michael Woodford, is still trying to get his voice heard, but few, it seems want to listen. read

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Teresa Nogueira Pinto

Sudan peace talks cancelled after border clashes increase

South Sudan, Africa’s newest country, has halted oil production – its main source of revenue - as border clashes with Sudan increase. It is claimed that the Sudanese Air Force has attacked oil wells in the disputed border area as the two sides disagree on how much should be paid for transporting the oil from the south to the markets. But neither side can afford another war. read

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Dr Kim R. Holmes

How would the US react to an Israeli raid on Iran?

US President Barack Obama, in a presidential election year, seems to be buying time by imposing harsher sanctions on Iran. He and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu disagree on what should happen next to stop Iran developing its nuclear programme. So how would America react if Israel ran out of patience and struck first? read

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Dr Kim R. Holmes

Early Nato pull-out from Afghanistan could play into hands of Taliban

Nato faces several challenges if it is to achieve its goal of withdrawing most of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. The recent accidental Koran burnings and massacre of civilians by a US soldier have brought calls for an earlier departure - but this could lead to the return of the Taliban and encourage them to increase their attacks in Pakistan. read

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Dr Carole Nakhle

Iran’s oil industry: Facing a new crisis

Western attitudes towards Iran are shifting towards tougher unilateral and multilateral sanctions as the energy-rich country continues with its nuclear ambitions. International pressure on Iran has partly focused on restricting oil exports and investment in Iran’s oil-related projects. How will its oil industry cope? read

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Bernard Siman

North America’s energy self-sufficiency is a wake up call to Europe and the Middle East

North America is slowly, but very surely, ending its dependence on foreign oil – a move that will have a considerable effect on the Middle Eastern states. After years of decline, the US oil production industry has a new lease of life. Additionally, the US is turning its political focus from the Middle East towards the Asia-Pacific region. This redirection should give Middle Eastern states and European powers reason to start forging a new mutually beneficial strategic and geopolitical framework to provide not only energy security for Europe but political stability in the Middle East region. read

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Professor Stefan Hedlund

Russia’s age of gas may be a little less than ‘golden’

Russia’s huge reserves of natural gas would seem to guarantee its economic future, with world demand for the energy source forecast to grow dramatically. But the country’s policies on production and distribution of both its oil and gas reserves could yet leave it in a far weaker position globally than it need be. read

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Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

Japan’s population turns against nuclear power

Japan could be nuclear-free within weeks without a referendum or any government decision. Nuclear power plants, shut down for routine maintenance, are not being brought back on line because of public opposition and security fears. Now electric power companies are using big increases in electricity prices to turn public sentiment. read

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